Considerations for your financial life.
Considered writing on markets and the craft of keeping a financial life aligned.
Investment Outlooks
Quarterly letters on markets and the economy.
Is 5% the New Normal?
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 85 basis points in a single quarter, to a level last seen in 2007, and the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate for the first time since 2023. While that was uncomfortable for anyone holding long bonds, a 10-year Treasury above 5% is closer to normal than the decade that came before it. We look at what the move in rates is telling us about inflation, why corporate earnings have held up anyway, where we see early signs of excess, and why we favor a tilt toward liquid assets and a little patience as the year closes.
Is This the Peak?
Oil, inflation, the Fed, and the divergence between AI and software.
The war in Iran spiked energy prices, and now we are seeing them retreat. What that does for inflation, the Fed, and equity markets is the question that frames the quarter. In the meantime, artificial intelligence takes center stage, and we discuss the impact of the divergence between AI and software stocks.
For Business Owners
Guides on planning before and after the sale or transition of a business.
Planning before the sale of a California business.
The numbers, value drivers, and timing that must be considered, coordinated, and aligned for maximum financial efficiency prior to sale.
The decisions that matter most in a business sale are usually made — or missed — before the deal begins. A plain guide to the preparation, tax, and estate work that belongs in the years and months ahead of a transaction, aligned with the business transition resources of Wells Fargo Advisors.
Investment Outlooks
Quarterly letters on markets and the economy.
Is 5% the New Normal?
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 85 basis points in a single quarter, to a level last seen in 2007, and the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate for the first time since 2023. While that was uncomfortable for anyone holding long bonds, a 10-year Treasury above 5% is closer to normal than the decade that came before it. We look at what the move in rates is telling us about inflation, why corporate earnings have held up anyway, where we see early signs of excess, and why we favor a tilt toward liquid assets and a little patience as the year closes.
Is This the Peak?
Oil, inflation, the Fed, and the divergence between AI and software.
The war in Iran spiked energy prices, and now we are seeing them retreat. What that does for inflation, the Fed, and equity markets is the question that frames the quarter. In the meantime, artificial intelligence takes center stage, and we discuss the impact of the divergence between AI and software stocks.
For Business Owners
Guides on planning before and after the sale or transition of a business.
Planning before the sale of a California business.
The numbers, value drivers, and timing that must be considered, coordinated, and aligned for maximum financial efficiency prior to sale.
The decisions that matter most in a business sale are usually made — or missed — before the deal begins. A plain guide to the preparation, tax, and estate work that belongs in the years and months ahead of a transaction, aligned with the business transition resources of Wells Fargo Advisors.